Energy

In 2025, the oil market is expected to experience a supply surplus. Global demand growth is likely to remain subdued, constrained by the fading of the post-pandemic rebound, improvements in energy efficiency, and the increasing adoption of carbon-free vehicles, particularly in China. Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ production is set to rise significantly, driven by non-conventional oil developments in the USA and Canada, alongside projects in Brazil, Argentina, Guyana, Senegal, and Norway. Against this backdrop, the average price of Brent crude, which stood around 80 USD per barrel in 2024, is projected to decline to between 70 and 75 USD in 2025. Geopolitical uncertainties will keep impacting prices.

For natural gas, demand will continue along its pre-pandemic growth path, spurred by Asia and the Middle East. As the market anticipates the commissioning of new LNG capacity in North America and the Middle East, the balance in gas markets is expected to tighten during this transitional phase. Competition between Europe and Asia for LNG supplies will drive prices higher in 2025, although they will remain far below the record levels seen in 2022.

Renewable energy sources, notably solar and wind, will maintain their growth trajectory thanks to declining levelized costs of energy. However, their expansion continues to face structural obstacles: shortages of critical components due to strained supply chains, elevated interest rates that challenge project profitability, and prolonged delays in securing permits and grid connections.

Finally, the energy transition remains a pivotal priority. Governments' resolve to accelerate the shift toward a "net zero" economy will need to be balanced with the pressing need for energy security, which still relies heavily on fossil fuels. This dual challenge will profoundly influence the energy sector in the years ahead.